THE LAUGH SPOT: AFLAC SCAM

THE LAUGH SPOT: AFLAC SCAM

AWOL - I'm Back

Oh, well. Keeping a blog is not as easy as it looks. I post things regularly on Yelp, Twitter, and Delicious.

Difference between Lawyer Clinton and Lawyer Kennedy

What is the difference between Mrs. Clinton and Caroline Kennedy - both are attorneys. Both have political families. Caroline Kennedy has lived in New York for ages and Hilary Clinton was a carpetbagger - Oh, I know - Hilary got a large signing bonus/political contribution for her book(s.)

New Year - New Posts

The current issues we are experiencing - economic turmoil, gasoline prices in flux, and the housing crisis were all foreseeable:

The Housing crisis started when interest rates were at all-time lows and people were opting for adjustable rate mortgages. It may have even started wit the No Doc Loan programs of the 1990's. The invention of the 80% first and 20% second mortgage was great for home purchasers - terrible in principle - no money down loans have higher default rates. The invention of 100% refinance loans, or even 125% and 140% refinance loans was even worse. It allowed people to get out from under credit card debt, and other debts, without fixing the problems that got people in over their heads in the first place.

This was foreseeable because it is logical - everyone will be fine as long as the rates stay low - and as we know from the gasoline prices, things change quickly. Now we have record levels of defaults instead of record levels of homeownership. I saw this as a matter of when, not if, it was going to happen during the late 90's and early 2000, while I was A Realtor in Milwaukee.

Gasoline prices are a different story. I had the opportunity to purchase a Ford Taurus or an Explorer during the late 90's - fuel mileage dictated I purchase the Taurus - 25 mpg versus 12 mpg. I drove approximately a thousand miles a month, so I could cut my expenses in half by increase my mpg. I only considered the possibility of buying an SUV because I wanted to see where I was going in a sea of SUVs.

CAFE standards were exempted for SUVs and we burned gasoline as if it was going out of style. Fast forward to the first fuel crisis: Katrina - we had never seen gasoline at $3 a gallon - we might have seen gas around $2 a gallon prior to 2005, but it was a rarity. Looking at the CPI for 2005 and comparing it with 2008 - depending upon what price you use as your starting point, when should be right around 1.699 a gallon - even if you track back to the late 80's, the correlation is about the same.

The economic turmoil we are experiencing is due to a multitude of factors - increases in petroleum demand worldwide - the approaching phenomenon of Peak Oil - more people driving longer distances to get to work - People who are retiring are removing money from their retirement funds causing funds to 'devalue' - "The Giant Sucking Sound" of NAFTA that Ross Perot said would happen - and the National Det and the National Deficit.

Get ready for more "Ike-Spikes." Katrina was our snooze alarm. Ike was are final wake-up call.

Gas Buddy Oil/Gas Comparison October 2007-2008

The two things that should pop off this chart are:
1) Gasoline prices did not spike as much as the oil prices did
2) We are now below where we were last year for a barrel of oil, and above where we were for a gallon of gasoline

What does it mean? Gouging conspirator go home. Oil companies took a long-term perspective and did not pass along all the costs of the hurricanes, so now that things are getting back on track, the gas prices will slowly drop until the companies recover their 'losses.'

Twin Spins in the Atlantic - Posible Tropical Developments?

Recently there was a "Weather Warrior" piece on the Weather Channel Regarding what would happen if two tropical storms can to be in close proximity to one another. A researcher in Japan discovered a possible 'spinning' effect around a - for lack of better words' - joint axis. While there appears to be a dry slot forming with the eastern most tropical disturbance - it may or may not be tropical - I do this for fun - if you follow the slot to the west and watch the water vapor in motion on the NOAA site - it appears that the two storms are connected. I saved this image from the NOAA site today around 11 AM.

Price Gouging in NC? Nawwwwwwwwwww

This graphic comes from Durhamgasprices.com, part of the gasbuddy.com family. Notice how there is a bigger spike for us than the rest of the United States

H I J - We're off to see the wizard - Hanna, Ike, Josephine

Three Tropical entities in the Atlantic - Ike is strong - 935 mb at 5 AM and 938 at 11 AM

Good News Bad News

The drought continues to expand in the southwestern part of the state, while the Triangle is above average for rainfall for the year. What is not being reported is that we are, as a state, in worse condition - looking at the table - this year than we were last year. We are approaching the dog days of August - hopefully the reservoirs will hold out through the rest of the water year.

The 2007-2008 Drought continues in North Carolina. Zoom in to see the individual tables and you will see that the drought increased this week, even with the beneficial 4th of July rainfall. We are in worse shape than last year (middle picture) and not as bad as 2002 (lower picture.) Remember - 2002 was the drought that started during November of 2001, when Greensboro received only a trace amount of water for the entire month of November. Also, remember that the drought took off in earnest last year during the "Dog-Days of August."

Warmer waters off the African Coast have made Bertha an early season Cape Verde Hurricane.

Article from the Daily Green

North Carolina in worse drought than one year ago

The drought continues - even with the rain of the past few days we are down for the month and the year. Add to that the roughly one foot we were down at the end of the year and we have the recipe for trouble. Asheville is getting hit hard, and the drought is spreading this way.

Drought a little worse this year than last year

Just when you thought we were going too catch a break, the past week of drought/high heat conditions have tipped the scales back to a worsening drought.

A article in the N&O states that the rivers did not have a chance to recharge after last summer's drought - the good news is that the reservoirs are near capacity.

What is Sustainability? Is it Un-Democratic/un-Libertarian

I receive a lot of information from professional listserves ... here is a comment I made regarding a person was skeptical regarding sustainability.

A quick (or not so quick )response with a lot of hyperlinks. Giving away gas cards to drivers who are feeling the pinch is like giving low sodium potato chips to a dieter. They feel that they can eat twice as much with only half the guilt. This crisis began during the post-Katrina time, and is not going away. The price of gas has not kept up with inflation for many years - now it is all happening at once, and it is a huge wake-up call. Short-term, feel-good ideas are not what is needed. We need fresh ideas followed by quick action. An example of such an idea is fuel banks, where people buy gallons of gas at a fixed price and consume it whenever they feel the spread between current prices and their price is sufficient. How about that as an economic stimulus.

Beware of the Sirens' call of current ads for 'locking in' to $2.99 gas for two years if you buy a pick-up truck now. This gimmick is only going to exacerbate the problem (demand) in the short run, and cause a bigger problem in two years when the promotion is gone, or sooner when the rebate is spent. (The promotion is actually an inventive rebate based on annual fuel consumption, average miles to the gallon, and the current price of gasoline.) There is another plan that will pay for 50% of the gas consumed for two years based on the "Muroni Sticker."

Detroit has sat on the sidelines while the Prius and the Insight have taken off. Detroit was holding out for fuel cell technology. As the big three saw the sales of highly profitable SUVs fall, they decided to make Hybrid SUVs - an oxymoron if there ever was one. The proposed gas tax holiday is a political gambit of robbing Peter to pay Paul (Taking money to improve roads to allow people to drive more on roads that need repair.)

There are three plans that need to be brought to everyone's attention. The first two plans were referenced in a APA Interact article: The 1808 Gallatin Plan and the 1908 Roosevelt Plan. Both plans are referenced on the America 2050 website. There are two articles on the 2050 website that may be of interest: A Briefing Book from a May 9, 2008 Meeting (it states ...recognition of the problem is not the challenge; rather it is the lack of imagination, creativity, and most of all, political will and leadership to re-think the fundamental principles and institutional design of our policy making and governing processes...) and the America 2050 Prospective, which is a very easy read with a lot of graphs and pictures (I have read this one.) The best article I have read on the need for a national infrastructure plan is the Robert Fishman Article "1808-1908-2008 National Planning for America." We owe a lot of our current successes, and current problems, to planning that was done 200 and 100 years ago, respectively. "national plans and the infrastructure they inspired resulted in dramatic economic growth...accompanied by unanticipated consequences ...damage to the environment and often unfair an inequitable distribution of economic benefits." (Rebuilding & Renewing America, pg. 6)

There is an abundant amount of information as to what can be done to promote sustainability. Locally, UNC-Chapel Hill, NC State, and Duke are all working on, and actually, reducing their carbon footprints, in order to become more sustainable. UNC and NCSU have their own sustainability reports with great ideas that could be administered on much larger scales. There are even national organizations that focus on Campus Sustainability. Chapel Hill and Durham have recently hired Sustainability Planners.

This is an exciting time to be in planning. I returned to graduate school to study Sustainable Development. I have read many great books on the subject, one of which is Randal Arendt's Conservation Deisgn for Subdivisions.

Sustainability can be as simple as co-location of police, fire, school, and library facilities. Another option would be more round-abouts/traffic circles to keep traffic moving versus being stuck in traffic wasting time and gasoline. Sustainability can be requiring all new irrigation systems to use graywater, and retroactively fit existing systems to gray water use within a set period of time. Encourage development along bus-lines, support location efficient mortgage programs, green mortgages, and LEED programs. Sidewalks and Safe Route to School programs could reduce morning traffic headaches. We may need to look to Eco-housing (there is one in Carborro where one or two houses are on the grid in reverse - they sell energy to the system) and Earthships. We will have to rethink flood and hurricane insurance issues.

As a final thought, I recently read a paper from the Congressional Budget Office (May 2008) titled Issues and Options in Infrastructure Investment. One of the points that the article makes is that there is a Policy Environment, as well as and economic environment, in which we must work. I would add to that discussion the 'environment environment.' Another point made in the report was that we have to identify and realize the costs to build, sustain, maintain, expand, and fund our infrastructure needs. In order for our society to be sustainable, we need sufficient infrastructure. Infrastructure cannot be built through gas-tax holidays and 'give-aways.'

A libertarian position - John Locke - freedom to do what you want to do with what you own with a minimum of government intervention - is what gets us into trouble.

PS. A Cautionary tale as to what happens if we do not behave in a sustainable way is Jared Diamond's "Collapse"

If you were given $200 to give away ...

This question was posed by Lorainne Ahearn this morning .... I I had $200 to give away ...

Piedmont Land Conservancy. There has been a large amount of press regarding The Haw River State park, and work that is being done on the Mountains-to-Sea Trail, as well as a recent attempt to rezone property on Old Battleground Avenue to allow multi-family housing, while there is an attempt to expand the Courthouse Battleground Site. The Open Space Bond should have passed. If we don't preserve open space now, how can we save it after it is 'closed?'

Click on the link above and make a donation.

Tornado Kills One - Shuts down businesses

Last night's severe weather has damaged buildings, closed down a section of the west side of Greensboro, and killed at least one person.

MSNBC and AP Link

NC-APA Position on Proposed Annexation Moratorium

Background

North Carolina enjoys a tradition of sound local government which helps make the state attractive to economic and residential growth. Efficient, orderly and sound development throughout the state is fostered by strong municipalities, capable of managing resources and expanding services to meet the needs of a growing population.

The North Carolina Chapter of the American Planning Association (NCAPA) views with concern legislation which would seriously hamper orderly municipal growth through annexation as well as efforts to incorporate new municipalities in close proximity to existing municipalities, solely or primarily to avoid annexation. NCAPA believes that such incorporations do not promote good local government, but instead may impair comprehensive planning efforts and result in fragmentation of authority over urban areas.

Positions

1. The North Carolina Chapter of the American Planning Association (NCAPA) fully supports the existing statutory standards and services annexation authority. NCAPA would oppose changes in the law, either statewide of local, which would weaken present annexation procedures or restrict municipal annexation authority. NCAPA would specifically oppose HB 74 or other similar bills which would allow residents in extra-territorial jurisdictions (ETJ's) to vote prior to municipal annexation attempts. Such elections would be formidable obstacles for municipalities to overcome, and could encourage inequitable situations where essentially urban areas draw the benefits of the municipality but do not pay for them.

The current statutory provisions are based upon the sound public policy that what is urban should be municipal and served by a full service municipality. Such a policy encourages development in accordance with a comprehensive plan. The cost of urban public services should be shared by those who commute to the city for work, shopping, play, health care, and other services.

The statutes set forth a rational, fair and objective process for annexation. NCAPA believes that municipal annexation is a valuable and essential planning tool, which facilitates sound regulation of development and efficient provision of necessary municipal services.

2. NCAPA recognizes the local character of incorporation bills, but feels that this is an important issue of statewide concern and would oppose new incorporations designed primarily to prevent annexation by an existing municipality. NCAPA encourages prior review of proposed incorporations by the Joint Legislative Commission on Municipal Incorporations, under the objective standards provided by statute.

Great News for Guilford County Kids

Thanks to people who place high value on our children's education, the school bonds passed yesterday. I am sure that Deena Hayes is disappointed. She was quoted in the Greensboro News and Record as saying: "Due to the deplorable educational outcomes of African American students and the unacceptable participation rate of our African American contractors, we will not be supporting the Guilford County school bond.". It may be true, to an extent, that new schools will not improve all the students educational experience. Working out of trailers, on the other hand, is unacceptable and is not helping the education process. Congratulations Guilford County. THe next time you have an opportunity, tell those school board members what you think and vote them out of office.

Get Out and Vote!

Time to get out and vote. If you don't vote in the primary election, don't complain about your schools or for whom you get to vote in November. Polls are open until 7:30

Vote for the Guilford County Bonds - Especially Open Space

There was a great article regarding a possible open space purchase by Guilford County reported in the News & Record this weekend. Working with the State of NC, the County may purchase up to 497 acres of wooded property near Lake Townsend. This purchase could aid in making a major connection for the Mountain-to-Sea Trail.

On a similar note, Vote yes to the Open Space Bond Tomorrow.